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Yesfx Global invest  
Released:  10/16/2008 12:09:13 AM
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Description:



Yesfx???


Contents:

???????????!


??????????????????? WSJ

?????????????????????????????.??????????????????.




???????????????,???WTO,??IMF:

?????-?? (??????????,??????????????)

???????????????????

??«????????»??,IMF??????1977?4?29???????????????????????????????????:

A:?????????????????????????????????????????,?????????????????????

B:??????????????????????????,??????????,????????,???????????

C:???,????????????????,???????????????

2007?6?15?,??????????«????????????»,?“????”????????????????,???????????????“???????????????????”?

??????????,??????????.?,????????.????2007??????.??07??????,??????????????.?2009?10??,?????????,????,???4??????????21.2%???“??????????????????????”?????IMF??:????????????????????,?????????????????????,????????????????????IMF??"???????????".???????????!????????????????.

????????FED???????.FED?????????????????.??G7??????.(??:???????????????????? )?????????????????????(????????????????).??james bullard(St.Louis FED??)??,????????????.???.??FED??????,????????.

??????????????,?????????,????????????????.?????????????,?????????.????????????,???.????????????.

?????.????????.????????.??????????!????,???????,????????.???IMF????,????.

????????????,??????????????????.????IMF??.?????????WTO??,???????????(Import Surtaxes).1971????????,?????????????,???????10%????.??12???????????????(Smithsonian Agreement),??????.(???:?????????(Bretton Woods System) )

~~~~~~~~~~~

11???????,????,???????????????,??????????.???????????????????.?????????NDF???.

????:
???????????????????????!
????????:???????


?????(CDM):?????????!



?????CDM?1997?????????????????,?????????.????????,???????.????.??????????!????????????????????????,????????????.

?????????????.?????,??????????????,????????,????.????,??????????.?????????????.????.??????????,????????.???????.????.

??.????????:???????????????,???????.??????????,????,????,????????????.?????????????????.(????????,???????).??????????????.???????.??,2006???????????,???????30??,????????,??????1??.???????.




?????????,???????????????.????????,??????????,??????.????????????????.????????????.????????.???????.????????????.???????????????.?????????.????????.???????,???????.??,?????????????.

WIKI ?????

??????????? PDF?

??????????,?????????:???????,??!???????(??PDF???),??????????,?????????,?????????.??????????,????,???????????????.????????.????????????,????????????????!

????:
??(Carbon Taxes),????!
???????????????????????!


????CDS??????



???????????????????.???????????????.???CIT???????,????????,????????????????.????????,???????????.??????,????!

The CDR Government Risk Index

????.??????,??????.?????CDS????Bloomberg??????????.???!

Swaps Signal Worst Yen Since 2005 as Debt Overwhelms



??????????????CDS???(7???10?????????????).??????.??????????????.?????.????????????????.????????????????.2010?????44?,????850????????????????.??????????CDS??.???????.

????????????.??????????(PS:??CDS??????,?????????????)

????:
???????????????


??!?????????!!


There are still too many houses??CNNmoney???????????????!

2007~08??????,???????????.?????2009?Q3,???????????.?????!??????????.??????????

US Census Bureau (???????????)??????????.



???????.??????????.?????????????,?????(???????????)



?????.?????????.??????,???????????????.???????.?????????.??????????????????.?house start?????????.



????????????:?????????!!?????????????!!(????????????).?????????,????????????.???G7?????????????.????????.???????????.?????.

????:

??GDP????????????!


?!??????(M1 Money Multiplier)???!


????!????????????,??????????????,FED????????????.M1 Money Multiplier ????????????????.?M1?????!!



http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT?cid=25



M1 Money Stock

?????,??????:???????????.???????????????????FED????????.?????????.????!

????????????,FED??,??.???????????.?????????????.???FED???????????????.?????????

????:
?????????????(?)


??(Carbon Taxes),????!



???????????,????.????,????????????????????????.????.???????????????????.???????????????.

??????????

????2009?6???«???????»??(?????)???,?2012??,?????????????????????????????,??????????????“?????”?

?????????,?????????????????????.????????.?????????????.????????????????.???????????????????????.

????.?????????????:

??? ?????

????????,??????????????????,???????????(??????,1?750???????15.4??.???)

???????.?????????.????.?????????????.????.????????????.

???/??????,???????

????.???????.???????.???????.?????????!

????:
???????????????????????!


?????????????:??


????????????.??,????????.??????,????.????????????.????????????.???????????????????.

????(????)...??????,???.

???????.??????????????.??.??????????????????.?????.???????????.????????:????????????????,?????????????!





??????????????????,???????????.????,??????,?????????.??????????????????????,????????????????????.???????????????.????????.????????.??????.??????????????.?????????????????.

????:
????????????
2009??GDP?????


???????????


?????????????.?????????????!??????5??????????????.



??????????????:



???.??????????(???????????????BBB???????).???????.??????????????.????????????????.???,??????????.?????????????????.?????????????.??????100%????.???????????????????!

????,?????????????.?????????????????.???????????????.?????.????????.?????????????.?????!???????????.?????????????????.??????????????????????.???????????????????(?????????).???????????????,????.

???????????????:

1.????????????!(???????????,??????.????????)
2.????????????.
3.???????????????????????,?????????????.

?????????????"????????"???.??????????...???????+?????????.

????:
?????????????(?)
JF???????????????


??????(Mobius)?????????????


?????????????????????(Mobius)?.????????????????.????????????????????.

???Mobius????????,???????????,?????????????.??????????.????????.

Templeton Emerging Markets <--morningstar???????????.


???????


???10???

?????.??????????.????????????????!

???????
1.???????.?????,???,????..??????????????????????.???????.
2.???????GDP?????(????????????).????????????.???.????????.????????.?????.????????????????!



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