This site is dedicated to the University of Florida Gator Fans. It is an open site to discuss and rehash the wins and losses and make plans toward the next National Championship! Here you will find truths, half truths, information and misinformation about the University of Florida Gators (P.S. This site endorses a 16-team playoff tournament in Division I college football.)
Most Touches: Moody Most Yards: Hernandez Most Receptions: Hernandez Most TDs: Nelson, Demps Margin: 24
Defense: Stamper 1 (Int) Doe 1 (11 Tackles)
Participant Points (Total):
Galapagos 6 (29) Sean 5 (32) Mary 4 (34) Mike 4 (24) Mark 3 (14) Brad (13)
You can use the comments section of this post to enter your selections for the SCAR game.
Note on margins: All margin picks are assumed to be for Gator wins unless noted differently. If a participant picks a 1 point margin without specifying (as I am doing this week), and the Gators lose by 2, that participant will still receive 2 points for being within 3 of the score. A player that picks a 2 point margin in this scenario will only receive 1 point unless they specify an opponent victory in their pick. "0" or "tie" is/are also accepted.
Here are the categories/scoring:
Defensive scoring (you make 2 defensive picks like you do for the other categories):
8 Tackles (solo and assisted)= 1 Point 1.5 Sacks= 1 Point 1 Interception= 1 Point 1 Score (TD or safety)= 1 Point
And here are the other categories:
Most Yards from Scrimmage Most Touches from Scrimmage (runs + receptions + passes) Most Receptions Most TDs (including returns/blocks) Point Margin (list one guess--earn 2 points for being within 3, 1 point for being within 6) (No QBs)
Mike 7 (20) Mary 3 (30) Sean 3 (27) Galapagos 3 (23) Brad 3 (13) Mark A. 3 (11)
You can use the comments section of this post to enter your selections for the Vandy game.
Here are the categories/scoring:
Defensive scoring (you make 2 defensive picks like you do for the other categories):
8 Tackles (solo and assisted)= 1 Point 1.5 Sacks= 1 Point 1 Interception= 1 Point 1 Score (TD or safety)= 1 Point
And here are the other categories:
Most Yards from Scrimmage Most Touches from Scrimmage (runs + receptions + passes) Most Receptions Most TDs (including returns/blocks) Point Margin (list one guess--earn 2 points for being within 3, 1 point for being within 6) (No QBs)
Play On!
Dooley's SEC Power Rankings
Here is Gainesville Sun Sportswriter Pat Dooley's latest SEC power rankings. Although I agree with the first three, I think he has some serious flaws after that. For example, he has Tennessee behind Georgia. My rankings are below, please feel free to weigh in with your rankings or opinions.
Dooley's Rankings 1. Florida: Gators finally put it all together 2. Alabama: Still some hurdles to get to Atlanta 3. LSU: Tigers get their second big chance to make an impression 4. Auburn: Just when you thought the Tigers were dead 5. South Carolina: Steve Spurrier needs a win badly this week 6. Georgia: Just not a well-coached team 7. Tennessee: Vols are certainly making progress 8. Ole Miss: You try to figure the Rebels out. Go ahead 9. Mississippi State: Really nice win for Dan Mullen 10. Arkansas: A pretty good team to be at No. 10 11. Kentucky: Quarterback issues have doomed the 'Cats 12. Vanderbilt: Bobby Johnson's team won't be returning to a bowl
Mike's Rankings 1. Florida: No. 1 until I see Alabama play LSU. 2. Alabama: They looked better than Florida early on, but their offense is suspect. 3. LSU: Just the one loss-to Florida. 4. Tennessee: Though others have a better record, a close loss to 'Bama and wins over South Carolina and Georgia says they are the best of the next tier. 5. South Carolina: This was a tough one, because they just lost, but I still like them head to head over Auburn. 6. Auburn: A little schizophrenic, but I love Gus Malzahn's offense. 7. Mississippi: Sure, Jevan Snead is overrated and the Rebels have underachieved this year, but I still like them better than Georgia or Mississippi State. 8. Georgia: Joe Cox is not a very good quarterback and it affects how Mark Richt coaches the game. 9. Mississippi State: I don't know if Mullen will ever build the Bulldogs into a winner, but he has them playing better than in recent years. 10. Arkansas: Though Arkansas and Kentucky look to be identical-both are 1-4 in conference play and 4-4 overall and both have a win over Auburn, Arkansas played Florida closer and has a quality win over a team with a winning record-Texas A&M. 11. Kentucky: See above. 12. Vanderbilt: I thought for a second they had Georgia Tech's number. If they had won that game, then they would be at No. 10.
I like the fade, slant, or screen options. With the fade, Hernandez would have just needed to cut his route a step deeper and Tebow needed to hit it near the back corner-- an option that may have worked as is if he puts more on it (this would mean more/better execution on the original play I suppose).
Red-Zone Percentages and Pass Protection
Two excellent analysis on Gator offensive woes. The first, by Gator Country, takes a look over the last three years at the percentage of Tebow carries in the red-zone. What the author finds is that as TD percentages in the red-zone have gone down, there has simultaneously been a trend upward in the percentage of Tebow carries. Quite stark, really. If you take the top third of games that Tebow carried the most in the red-zone, you have most or all of our worst games in the last three years. Nice charts and graphs included.
The next piece is by Smart Football's Chris Brown. It focuses on pass protection issues. Keen, as always. Snapshots/diagrams and video included, as always.
Touches, TDs, Yards: Rainey (Doe also tied for lead in TDs with 1) Receptions: Hernandez Margin: 10
Defensive Points: Dunlap 2 (3 Sacks) AJ Jones 1 (Int) Doe 2 (Int, TD) Wright 1 (Int) Stamper 1 (13 tackles)
Participant Points (Total):
Galapagos 5 (20) Sean 4 (24) Mary 3 (27) Mike 4 (13) Mark 3 (8) Brad 1 (10) John (4)
You can use the 'comments' section of this post to enter your selections for the Georgia game.
Here are the categories/scoring:
Defensive scoring (you make 2 defensive picks like you do for the other categories):
8 Tackles (solo and assisted)= 1 Point 1.5 Sacks= 1 Point 1 Interception= 1 Point 1 Score (TD or safety)= 1 Point
And here are the other categories:
Most Yards from Scrimmage Most Touches from Scrimmage (runs + receptions + passes) Most Receptions Most TDs (including returns/blocks) Point Margin (list one guess--earn 2 points for being within 3, 1 point for being within 6) (No QBs)
Touches: Demps Yards and Receptions: Hernandez TDs: Demps and Thompson Margin: 3
Defensive Points:
Cunningham 1 (for 2 sacks)
Weekly Participant Points (Total):
Mary 5 (24) Sean 5 (20) Galapagos 4 (15) Michael 5 (9) Mark 4 (5) Brad (9) John (4)
You can use the 'comments' section of this post to enter your selections against Mississippi State.
Here are the categories/scoring:
Defensive scoring (you make 2 defensive picks like you do for the other categories):
8 Tackles (solo and assisted)= 1 Point 1.5 Sacks= 1 Point 1 Interception= 1 Point 1 Score (TD or safety)= 1 Point
And here are the other categories:
Yards from Scrimmage Touches from Scrimmage (runs + receptions + passes) Receptions TDs (including returns/blocks) Point Margin (list one guess--earn 2 points for being within 3, 1 point for being within 6) (No QBs)
Understatement. It’s always fun. The Orlando Sentinel gently suggests Florida misses Dan Mullen in the booth. Answer this: has there ever been an offensive coordinator who was better from the sidelines than one from the booth? Did we ever see Norm Chow looking up from his sixth brilliantly called touchdown of the day when he wasn’t glowering menacingly from behind the plate glass of the booth? When we think “brilliant offensive coordinator,” we inevitably see someone working silently from the aseptic, quiet environs of the booth, watching dots move around on the field like an indifferent, all-powerful deity. When we think “offensive coordinator on the sidelines,” we see Ed Zaunbrecher. Two fun facts! Steve Addazio calls the offense from the field, and is leading an attack tallying 18 points less than last year’s epic slaughtering crew.
A few commentators brought up Spurrier as a counter-example this.
"The only person who's going to get heat is me," Meyer said. "We're just maneuvering through a difficult part of the schedule. We're trying to get some things worked out."
Not much has changed with the play-calling process.
Florida still calls plays by committee, with Meyer having the final say.
First-year offensive coordinator Steve Addazio, also the offensive line coach, still calls the running game but is more immersed in the overall scheme. Meyer says Addazio is doing a "heck of a job."
Wide receivers coach Billy Gonzales still organizes red-zone offense.
The Gators still draw plays Thursday and Friday they'd like to run early in the game.
...
Mullen was an extra voice of reason from the press box. Mullen had no problem telling Meyer no.
At last year's FSU game, the field at Doak Campbell Stadium was soaked and Meyer wanted to run Tebow all night. Mullen convinced him to stick with the passing attack because players looked unaffected by rain. The Gators won 45-15.
"That was eight years of being able to say that," Meyer said. "Not many people will say that to me during a [game]. Steve will. Billy Gonzales will."
And you thought Mullen was the overly careful-conservative of the bunch.
More hurry-up?:
After Arkansas flustered Florida with different blitz packages, Addazio said the Gators will rely more on hurry-up offense to avoid "standing there so long watching."
"We have to change tempo," Addazio said.
Still getting comfortable? Really?:
Three offensive assistants have been with Meyer for two years or less, which makes transition inevitable. Quarterback Tim Tebow is building chemistry with quarterbacks coach Scot Loeffler after three years with Mullen.
"It's going to take a little time to just get used to each other," Tebow said.
I first heard about Pulaski from Peter Giovannini of Morrilton, Ark., a high school football official who wrote me to report in astonishment that he had just worked a conference championship game in which the winning team never punted, even going for a first down on fourth-and-6 from its own 5-yard line early in the game. "As a devotee of TMQ, I thought you might like to know at least one coach in the vast football universe has experienced the epiphany and refuses to punt the ball away," Giovannini wrote.
That team was Pulaski -- 9-1-1 after having just won its opening-round game in the Arkansas 5A playoffs. Coach Kevin Kelley reports that he stopped punting in 2005 -- after reading an academic study on the statistical consequences of going for the first down versus handing possession to the other team, plus reading Tuesday Morning Quarterback's relentless examples of when punting backfires but going for the first down works. In 2005, Pulaski reached the state quarterfinals by rarely punting. In 2006, Pulaski reached the state championship game, losing by one point -- and in the state championship game, Pulaski never punted, converting nine of 10 fourth-down attempts. Since the start of the 2006 season, Pulaski has had no punting unit and never practices punts. This year, Pulaski has punted just twice, both times when leading by a large margin and trying to hold down the final score. In its playoff victory Friday night, Pulaski did not punt, converting three of four fourth-down tries.
"They give you four downs, not three," Kelley told TMQ. "You should take advantage. Suppose we had punted from our own 5. The odds are the opposition will take over at about the 35, and from there the stats say they have an 80 percent chance of scoring. So even if you only have a 50 percent chance of converting the first down, isn't that better than giving the other side an 80 percent chance of scoring?" For fourth-and-short attempts, the odds of converting are a lot better than 50 percent.
As TMQ endlessly notes, NFL teams convert about 75 percent of fourth-and-1 tries. Yet highly paid professional coaches endlessly send in the punt unit on fourth-and-1, handing a scoring opportunity to the opposition. In the 2006 edition of my annual don't-punt column, I summarized the odds this way: "Nearly three-quarters of fourth-and-1 attempts succeed, while around one-third of possessions result in scores. Think about those fractions. Go for it four times on fourth-and-1: Odds are you will keep the ball three times, and three kept possessions each with a one-third chance of a score results in your team scoring once more than it otherwise would have. Punt the ball on all four fourth-and-1s, and you've given the opponents three additional possessions. (It would have gotten one possession anyway when you missed one of your fourth-and-1s.) Those three extra possessions, divided by the one-third chance to score, give the opponent an extra score."
Kelley says that when he began to shun the punt, people thought he was crazy: "It's like brainwashing, people believe you are required to punt." Players and the home crowd needed to get acclimated to it. "When we first started going on every fourth down," he says, "our home crowd would boo and the players would be distressed. You need to become accustomed to the philosophy and buy into the idea. Now our crowd and our players expect us to go for it, and get excited when no punting team comes onto the field. When my 10-year-old son sees NFL teams punting on short yardage on television, he gets upset because he's grown up with the idea that punting is usually bad."
Preparing the players for the no-punting future of football is a practical concern. If a coach unexpectedly kept his offense in on fourth down in his own territory, and failed to convert, the crowd would boo and the defensive players become demoralized. If the defensive players understood that a no-punting philosophy occasionally would hand great field position to the other side but overall would keep the other side off the field, they would buy into the idea. Imagine, in turn, the demoralizing effect on the opposition if its defense stops its opponent after three downs, only to realize that no punt will follow. For the 2007 edition of my anti-punting column, the stats service AccuScore did thousands of computer simulations based on 2006 NFL games and found that, on average, rarely punting added one point per game to the score of the teams that didn't punt, while not adding any points to their opponents' final scores. Computer simulations showed that rarely punting amounted to roughly one additional victory per season at the NFL level. At the college and high school levels, the bonus might be even higher.
Why do coaches punt on fourth-and-short -- and worse, when trailing or in opposition territory? "Most punting is so the coach can avoid criticism," says Kelley, who has coached Pulaski for five years and got his start in high school coaching in football-crazed Texas. "If you go for it and fail, the first question in the postgame press conference will be, 'Aren't you to blame for losing the game because you didn't punt?' If the coach orders a punt, the media will blame the defense." TMQ has always speculated that the desire to shift blame explains why big-college and NFL coaches send in the punting team. But take note, these days, the media and the postgame news conference are factors even at the high school level.
